A Comprehensive Study of Version Lifecycle, Regional Adoption Dynamics, and Strategic Market Shifts Across North America, China, and Europe
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Part 1: Global Market Architecture & Methodology
- Part 2: Global Version Distribution Analysis
- Part 3: Technical Drivers & Version Lifecycle
- Part 4: North America Market Deep Dive
- Part 5: China Market Deep Dive
- Part 6: Europe (EMEA) Market Deep Dive
- Part 7: Technology Evolution & Future Predictions
- Part 8: Strategic Conclusions & Recommendations
- References
Executive Summary
The global enterprise database management system (DBMS) market is undergoing a profound structural transformation in 2024-2025. The defining characteristic of this period is the intense tension between “legacy inertia” and “cloud-native innovation.”
Despite Oracle’s aggressive push toward its “Converged Database” vision through Oracle Database 23ai and Autonomous Database, the actual production environments across major geopolitical regions—particularly North America, China, and Europe (EMEA)—exhibit significant version lag and regional divergence.
Key Data Sources
This report synthesizes data from:
- Quest IOUG (Independent Oracle Users Group) annual surveys
- UKOUG (UK Oracle User Group) & DOAG (German Oracle User Group) research
- Gartner & IDC market intelligence
- Rimini Street & Spinnaker Support third-party support provider data
- Oracle Corporation FY2024-2025 financial reports
- Enlyft commercial intelligence platform
🔑 Key Findings at a Glance
| Metric | Finding |
|---|---|
| 19c Adoption | 34%-50% of active enterprise installations |
| Legacy Version Retention | 79%-90% running 18c or earlier versions |
| 11g in USA | 50% of global 11g users located in United States |
| Third-Party Support Interest | 64% willing to explore alternatives to avoid forced upgrades |
| Support Cost Concerns | 63% find Oracle official support costs too high |
📊 Regional Market Divergence
| Region | Primary Driver | Dominant Version | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Hybrid Cloud (Oracle@Azure) | 19c (growing) | Cloud migration acceleration |
| China | Government Policy (Xinchuang) | 11g R2 (declining) | Domestic replacement wave |
| Europe | Data Sovereignty (GDPR) | 19c (stable) | Conservative modernization |
Part 1: Global Market Architecture & Methodology
1.1 Estimation Methodology
Accurately estimating Oracle’s global installation base requires moving beyond simple “customer count” metrics—a single customer may operate thousands of instances across tens of thousands of cores.
This report employs a “Revenue-Based Reverse Calculation” combined with “Multi-Source Triangulation” methodology, using Oracle’s software license and support revenue as benchmarks while cross-referencing third-party penetration surveys.
1.2 Revenue Structure & Installation Base Mapping
Based on Oracle’s FY2024 and FY2025 Q1 financial reports, total revenue has exceeded $53 billion.
Oracle FY2024 Core Revenue Segments Analysis
| Revenue Segment | Est. Amount (USD) | YoY Growth | Installation Base Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud Services & License Support | ~$39.4B | +12% | Legacy Base Foundation. Primarily composed of existing customers paying 22% annual support fees (SULS). This massive recurring revenue implies ~$180B in active software assets globally—representing millions of production database instances with extremely high stickiness. |
| Cloud License & On-Premise License | ~$5.1B | -12% | Growth Indicator. Continuous decline indicates traditional “perpetual license” model contraction. Enterprises shifting to BYOL cloud migration or subscription models. |
| Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) | ~$5-6B | +50%+ | Migration Accelerator. Rapid growth reflects existing Oracle databases relocating from customer data centers to OCI—not new installation explosion, but physical location transfer of existing workloads. |
1.3 Regional Revenue Weights & Installation Density
| Region | Revenue Share (Est.) | Installation Characteristics | Key Drivers/Barriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | ~63% | High-value, High-density. Largest Exadata cluster deployments globally. Extremely high ULA (Unlimited License Agreement) penetration in financial and federal government sectors. | Drivers: AI integration, Hybrid Cloud (Oracle@Azure). Barriers: High operational costs. |
| EMEA | ~24% | Medium-density, High-compliance. GDPR and data sovereignty maintain high on-premises deployment ratios with heavy reliance on legacy versions (11g/12c). | Drivers: Sovereign cloud demand. Barriers: PostgreSQL competition. |
| APAC | ~13% | Polarized. Japan and Southeast Asia show stable growth; China has massive legacy base but rapidly shrinking new license purchases due to “Xinchuang” policy—causing revenue-to-physical-installation ratio inversion. | Drivers: Digital transformation (India/ASEAN). Barriers: Geopolitics and domestic replacement (China). |
💡 Deep Insight: APAC’s mere 13% revenue share actually masks enormous “zombie” installation volumes. Particularly in China, massive 11g/12c instances no longer paying Oracle official support (using third-party support or running unsupported) remain operational—invisible in financial reports but significant in the technical ecosystem.
Part 2: Global Version Distribution Analysis
2.1 Legacy Market Resilience: The Persistence of 11g & 12c
Despite Oracle having long discontinued Premier Support for Oracle Database 11g (especially 11gR2), this version remains a stubborn fixture in the global enterprise IT landscape.
Quest IOUG Survey: Global Oracle Database Version Adoption
| Oracle Database Version | Adoption Rate | 2024/2025 Lifecycle Status |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle 19c Enterprise Edition | 34% | Premier Support ended (Apr 2024) / Extended Support to 2029 |
| Oracle 12c Enterprise Edition | 20% | Sustaining Support |
| Oracle 18c Enterprise Edition | 14% | Sustaining Support |
| Oracle 21c Enterprise Edition | 13% | Innovation Release (support ending) |
| Oracle 11g Enterprise Edition | 10% | Sustaining Support (Market-Driven Support ended) |
| Oracle 19c Standard Edition | 10% | Premier/Extended Support |
| Pre-11g Versions (9i, 10g) | 7% | Permanent Sustaining Support |
Comprehensive Estimate: 2024 Global Version Distribution
| Version | Release Type | Est. Share (Active Instances) | Support Status | Market Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle 19c | Long-Term Support (LTS) | 45%-50% | Premier to 2029, Extended to 2032 | Core Mainstream. Ultimate safe harbor for most enterprises; primary version for cloud PaaS services. |
| Oracle 12c | Legacy LTS | 20%-25% | Sustaining Only | Technical Debt. Massive EBS R12 and SAP legacy users remain, facing significant security risks. |
| Oracle 11g R2 | Classic Legacy | 15%-20% | Sustaining Only | Zombie Version. Extremely stable with low resource footprint; widespread in manufacturing and healthcare embedded systems. |
| Oracle 18c/21c | Innovation Release | < 5% | End of Life | Skipped. Enterprise customers almost entirely bypassed these due to short 2-year support windows. |
| Oracle 23ai | Next-Gen LTS | < 2% | Early Adoption | Evaluation Stage. Despite AI Vector Search capabilities, primarily in dev/test environments; not yet replacing core production databases. |
2.2 The Binary Structure Behind the Data
⚠️ Critical Insight: Nearly 40% of enterprise installations run on versions effectively outside mainstream support cycles (12c, 18c, 11g, Pre-11g).
Rimini Street’s independent analysis is even more striking—their 2025 global survey indicates nearly 90% of Oracle database users still run 18c or earlier versions.
Why the Gap? The difference between IOUG’s 34% 19c adoption and Rimini Street’s 90% legacy retention reflects market “binary polarization”:
- Active head enterprises aggressively following upgrade cycles
- A massive “silent majority” frozen on legacy versions due to cost or technical constraints
2.3 The “19c Trap” & Upgrade Inertia
Analysis shows ~80% of surveyed enterprises still use 19c or earlier versions. This isn’t accidental—it results from Oracle’s version strategy intersecting with enterprise risk preferences:
Primary Upgrade Barriers
| Barrier | Description |
|---|---|
| Architectural Changes | Transition from 11g’s Non-CDB architecture to 12c/19c Multitenant (CDB/PDB) requires script and operational procedure restructuring. |
| License Cost & Audit Risk | Upgrades often trigger license renegotiations—an event most CIOs actively avoid. |
| Long-Term Support Temptation | Oracle extending 19c support to 2032 reduces upgrade urgency; for most CIOs, databases are infrastructure like utilities. |
| Innovation Release Failure | 18c and 21c were largely ignored due to 2-year support windows; enterprises jump directly between LTS versions. |
| Third-Party Support Rise | Facing 4%-8% annual support fee increases, many 11g/12c users shift to Rimini Street, saving ~50% on maintenance costs. |
📈 Survey Data: 63% find Oracle official support costs too high; 64% willing to explore third-party support to avoid forced upgrades.
Part 3: Technical Drivers & Version Lifecycle
3.1 The Container Database Architecture Barrier (12c to 19c)
The transition from 11g’s traditional Non-CDB architecture to the Multitenant Architecture (CDB/PDB) introduced in 12c and mandatory in 21c/23ai represents the largest technical obstacle to version upgrades.
| Aspect | Impact |
|---|---|
| Legacy Incompatibility | Many enterprises remain on 11g because legacy applications, backup scripts, monitoring tools, and operational procedures are incompatible with Multitenant mode. |
| 19c as Last Harbor | 19c deprecated Non-CDB but still allows creation and operation—making it the final refuge for legacy architectures. |
| 23ai Firewall | 23ai completely removes Non-CDB support, creating a barrier blocking smooth upgrades from 19c non-container mode. |
3.2 Vector Search as Upgrade Catalyst (19c to 23ai)
Oracle Database 23ai introduces AI Vector Search, enabling databases to directly store and query vector embeddings without data movement—powering generative AI applications like RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation).
| Factor | Analysis |
|---|---|
| North America & Europe Adoption | Expected to be the primary driver for 23ai upgrades in 2025. CIOs facing “AI anxiety” will view 23ai as a shortcut to deploy AI capabilities on existing enterprise data assets. |
| China Adoption | Relatively weak appeal due to domestic AI ecosystem characteristics and data sovereignty controls. Domestic databases (like GaussDB) are rapidly adding vector search capabilities, diminishing Oracle’s uniqueness. |
| Timeline Challenge | Due to 19c’s extended support cycle and AI applications currently being “external” (application-layer AI, not in-database AI), 23ai may only see dev/test deployment for 1-2 years before significant production adoption. |
3.3 License Cost Optimization & Cloud Economics
| Strategy | Impact |
|---|---|
| Third-Party Support Economics | Rimini Street’s 20-30% annual business growth proves that for many customers, “not upgrading” is the best upgrade. Staying on 11g/12c/19c with third-party support saves ~50% on annual maintenance versus Oracle official support. |
| BYOL License Portability | Oracle’s Bring-Your-Own-License strategy is essentially a stealth version conversion program. Converting idle or legacy 11g on-premises licenses to cloud 19c PaaS eliminates infrastructure management burden. This statistically reduces on-premises installation counts while increasing cloud database revenue. |
Part 4: North America Market Deep Dive
North America (USA and Canada) is Oracle’s birthplace and largest, most mature market, contributing over 60% of revenue. The region features extremely high cloud penetration, aggressive compliance enforcement, and intense competition between “cloud migration” and “third-party support” strategies.
4.1 Installation Base Composition: Legacy Version Stronghold
Surprisingly, North America—the technology innovation center—also hosts the world’s largest Oracle legacy version installation base.
Enlyft Platform Data: USA Legacy Concentration
| Version | USA Share of Global Users |
|---|---|
| Oracle 10g | 58% |
| Oracle 11g | 50% |
| Oracle Data Integrator | 50% |
💡 Insight: This concentration indicates that despite advanced cloud capabilities, massive “legacy assets” exist in highly regulated sectors—healthcare, finance, federal government, and utilities—running decades-old critical backend logic with extremely high migration costs.
4.2 Infrastructure Architecture Reconstruction
Unlike other regions, North American enterprises aren’t rushing to replace Oracle databases—they’re rushing to change where they run.
Exadata Cloud@Customer (ExaC@C) Dominance
In finance (JP Morgan, Bank of America) and healthcare (Oracle Health/Cerner), data compliance requires data to remain within corporate firewalls. ExaC@C allows enterprises to consume Oracle databases via cloud subscription within their own data centers—achieving massive success in North America and locking in high-value installation volumes.
Multicloud Interconnect
North America is the beachhead for Oracle Database@Azure and Oracle Database@Google Cloud. With many US enterprises running application layers on Azure or AWS while data layers depend on Oracle, this “hosting” model (placing Exadata hardware in Microsoft/Google data centers) eliminates network latency.
🎯 Strategic Analysis: This brilliantly prevents customer loss to SQL Server or Aurora due to “cloud-native migration.” By making Oracle databases first-class citizens in Azure, Oracle successfully built a “moat” in North America protecting core transactional system installation volumes.
4.3 Version Adoption Drivers & Barriers
Hybrid Cloud as Upgrade Accelerator
In North America, the primary motivation for migrating from 11g/12c to 19c comes from cloud strategy. Oracle Database@Azure was a turning point—allowing Microsoft-ecosystem-dependent US enterprises to keep database layers on OCI dedicated hardware while application layers run in Azure via low-latency interconnect.
Aggressive License Audits & Third-Party Support Rise
North American enterprises face the world’s strictest license compliance pressure. Oracle’s Java licensing model changes and hardline stance on ULA (Unlimited License Agreement) renewals force many CIOs into defensive strategies—”freezing” database versions to avoid triggering audits or falling into new license traps.
This directly spawns a thriving Third-Party Support (3PS) ecosystem. Rimini Street and Spinnaker Support are most active in North America, explicitly targeting 11g and 12c customers with promises of 15+ years of support without upgrades.
Result: North American market shows clear polarization—some enterprises rapidly advancing to 19c/23ai via OCI/Azure, while others entrench on 11g/12c through third-party support.
4.4 Industry Segmentation
| Industry | Version Characteristics | Driving Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 11g/12c heavy concentration | ISV (Epic, Cerner) certification lag and extreme patient data security risks |
| Financial Services (BFSI) | Upgrade forefront | Real-time risk control and regulatory compliance drive 19c adoption via ExaC@C with automated patch management |
| Federal Government & Defense | Most committed 19c users | FedRAMP certification extends version validation cycles; 23ai adoption expected to lag 2-3 years |
| Tech & SaaS | Mixed state | Many emerging SaaS companies choose PostgreSQL, but Oracle NetSuite and acquired vertical software maintain massive Oracle database foundations hidden behind applications |
Part 5: China Market Deep Dive
If North America is experiencing “cloud reconstruction,” China is undergoing complete “genetic replacement.” China’s Oracle database version evolution logic differs fundamentally from all other regions. The core keyword isn’t “upgrade”—it’s “replacement.”
Under the “Xinchuang” (Information Technology Application Innovation) strategic framework, Oracle 11g/19c installation analysis must be contextualized within the domestic substitution migration framework.
5.1 Legacy Characteristics Under “De-IOE” Wave
Historically, China was an absolute stronghold for Oracle 11g. In telecommunications, finance (core banking systems), energy, and government, Oracle 11g once dominated with market share exceeding 50%. However, driven by geopolitical and supply chain security policies, Oracle’s market share is experiencing structural contraction.
Key Characteristics
| Aspect | Status |
|---|---|
| Market Share Reversal | By 2024, domestic vendors (OceanBase, Alibaba PolarDB, Huawei GaussDB, Dameng) have significantly increased market share, progressively replacing Oracle from peripheral to core systems. |
| 11g R2 Special Status | Despite replacement waves, Oracle 11g R2 remains the highest-share version in China’s legacy market. |
| 19c Adoption Limitations | Unlike North America, Oracle 19c new deployments in China face strict restrictions. New projects almost entirely use domestic or open-source databases (MySQL/PostgreSQL). 19c primarily exists in multinational corporations in China or specific financial subsystems not yet Xinchuang-compliant. |
🔻 China’s Oracle installation base is a shrinking “inverted pyramid”: massive but eroding 11g legacy at the bottom, small amounts of 12c/19c in the middle, virtually no space for 23ai at the top.
5.2 Core Replacement Under “Xinchuang” Policy
The Chinese government’s “Information Technology Application Innovation (Xinchuang)” strategy explicitly requires domestic software/hardware replacement in critical infrastructure sectors: finance, telecommunications, energy, and transportation.
China Market RDBMS Competitive Landscape Evolution (2021-2024)
| Vendor Camp | Market Position Change | Core Replacement Cases & Trends |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle | Accelerating Decline. Transformed from absolute monopolist to “replacement target.” Virtually absent in new core system bids; only legacy systems maintained. | Core banking systems, ERP foundations being progressively stripped. |
| Alibaba Cloud (PolarDB/OceanBase) | Market Leader. Public cloud database market share exceeds 40%; OceanBase strong in financial core system replacement. | Ant Group, multiple joint-stock banks core system migration. |
| Huawei Cloud (GaussDB) | Government/Enterprise Preferred. “Pure domestic” and “full-stack autonomous” branding enables highest Oracle replacement share in state-owned banks and central enterprises. | ICBC, CCB mainframe offloading projects. |
| Dameng / Kingbase | Vertical Niche. Dominant in party/government agencies and traditional e-government systems. | Replacing non-transactional government applications previously running on Oracle. |
5.3 Compatibility as Version Indicator
A unique perspective for understanding China’s Oracle version landscape: domestic database “compatibility claims.” Domestic vendors invest heavily in developing compatibility layers for specific Oracle versions—reverse-confirming which versions are the primary “replacement sources.”
| Vendor | Compatibility Target | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| OceanBase | High compatibility with Oracle 11g R2 and 19c; tools support automated PL/SQL stored procedure migration | These two versions are the only “source” systems requiring serious attention in China |
| Alibaba PolarDB | Deep Oracle syntax compatibility engine (PolarDB for Oracle) | Aims to smoothly take over Oracle legacy workloads |
| Huawei GaussDB | UGO (Database and Application Migration) tool emphasizes Oracle 11g object assessment and conversion | Confirms 11g as primary migration source |
5.4 Landmark Case: Postal Savings Bank of China
One of 2024’s most symbolic events was the Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) absorption merger of its direct banking subsidiary (Youhui Wanjia Bank) and system reconstruction.
| Aspect | Detail |
|---|---|
| Background | China’s banking “IOE” architecture (IBM mainframe, Oracle database, EMC storage) was historically considered unshakeable. |
| Transformation | PSBC and other state-owned banks (CCB, ICBC) are advancing “mainframe offloading” projects, using distributed databases (GaussDB, GoldenDB, OceanBase) to replace Oracle core databases—driven not only by cost (Oracle’s high software/hardware maintenance) but by national supply chain security mandate. |
| Data Validation | Financial reports show Chinese banking IT investment continues increasing, but Oracle allocation ratio dramatically shrinks, redirecting to domestic software and self-developed architectures. |
5.5 Multinational & Manufacturing Holdouts
Despite core sector cleansing, Oracle hasn’t completely disappeared from China:
| Segment | Status |
|---|---|
| Multinational Corporations (MNCs) | Global 500 companies operating in China (automotive, pharmaceutical, retail) often bound by global ERP standards (SAP/Oracle EBS); their China subsidiaries must use Oracle databases for data consistency. |
| Complex Manufacturing | In semiconductor and precision manufacturing, many MES (Manufacturing Execution Systems) deeply bind Oracle PL/SQL logic with extremely high restructuring costs—constituting Oracle’s final “stubborn fortress” in China. |
Part 6: Europe (EMEA) Market Deep Dive
The European market occupies a middle ground between North American and Chinese models—a unique hybrid state with both EU regulatory rigidity (GDPR, DORA) and deep engineering culture in technical communities.
The market mindset can be summarized as “Sweat the Assets”—leading to long-term dependence on stable versions like 19c.
6.1 Data Sovereignty-Driven Architecture Choices
EU’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) and subsequent data acts make “data sovereignty” the primary consideration for European enterprise database selection.
| Initiative | Impact |
|---|---|
| Oracle EU Sovereign Cloud | Physically isolated sovereign cloud regions launched in Madrid and Frankfurt partially alleviate European public sector and healthcare concerns about data export, preserving some sensitive industry installation volumes. |
| DACH Region Conservatism | DOAG (German Oracle User Group) feedback shows DACH (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) enterprises are extremely conservative—cautious about public cloud, preferring private cloud or managed services. Due to Oracle audit policy dissatisfaction, some mid-sized enterprises actively evaluate PostgreSQL migration feasibility. |
| Sovereign Cloud Driving Upgrades | EU Sovereign Cloud and Dedicated Region Cloud@Customer drive public sector migration from legacy on-premises 11g to data-residency-compliant 19c/23ai cloud environments. |
6.2 User Group Sentiment: DOAG & UKOUG
Europe hosts the world’s most organized Oracle user communities. DOAG and UKOUG annual conferences provide the best windows for observing regional version adoption trends.
DOAG 2024 (Germany)
The Nuremberg conference’s core topic was Oracle 19c support lifecycle extension. When Oracle announced 19c support extending to 2029/2032, positive audience feedback indicated German enterprises generally lack urgency to upgrade to 23ai or fully migrate to cloud—prioritizing longer lifecycle returns on existing investments.
PostgreSQL Competition: “PostgreSQL vs. Oracle” discussions are highly heated in Germany. Cost-benefit considerations accelerate non-core workload migration to PostgreSQL, forcing Oracle to extend 19c lifespan to retain core database customers.
UKOUG 2024 (UK)
UK market focus differs, emphasizing modernization within Oracle ecosystem. Oracle APEX (low-code development) and AI integration are hot topics.
MSP Role: UK market heavily relies on Managed Service Providers like DSP-Explorer for complex Oracle environment management. These MSPs report 19c as standard configuration for their customer base, typically hosted on OCI or Azure—showing higher cloud acceptance than Germany.
6.3 Open Source Penetration Under Cost Pressure
In UK and Nordic countries, economic downturn pressure forces IT departments to reassess database costs.
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| UKOUG Survey | Database license and support costs are IT budget pain points. While core transactional systems are hard to replace, data warehouses, reporting systems, and peripheral applications face fierce competition from Snowflake (analytical) and PostgreSQL (transactional). |
| Installation Trend | European Oracle installation volumes expected to maintain “volume decline, revenue stable” pattern—small/medium instances flowing to open source while core large instances locked via ULA maintain revenue stability. |
6.4 European Version Adoption Dynamics
| Version | Status |
|---|---|
| Oracle 19c | Absolute dominant version for European banking, retail, and public sectors. Focus on maintaining security patch updates (PSU/RU), not pursuing new features. |
| Oracle 11g/12c | Still exists but gradually consolidating. Unlike USA, European enterprises facing stricter regulatory audits (e.g., banking stress tests requiring vendor-supported software versions) tend to stay within official support windows or purchase official extended support rather than fully embracing third-party support. |
Part 7: Technology Evolution & Future Predictions
7.1 Oracle 23ai: Can AI Catalyze Upgrades?
Oracle pins hopes on Oracle Database 23ai and its AI Vector Search capabilities to trigger a new upgrade wave.
| Dimension | Analysis |
|---|---|
| Opportunity | 23ai allows enterprises to run RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation) applications directly on existing relational data without exporting to dedicated vector databases (like Pinecone)—extremely attractive for privacy-conscious financial and healthcare customers. |
| Challenge | Due to 19c’s extended support cycle and AI applications currently being “external” (application-layer AI, not in-database AI), 23ai may only see dev/test deployment for 1-2 years before significant production installation volume conversion. |
7.2 Global Installation Base Migration Forecast: 2025-2028
Installation Volume Evolution by Architecture Type
| Architecture Type | 2024 Share | 2026 Forecast | 2028 Forecast | Trend Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional On-Premises (Bare Metal/VM) | 55% | 40% | 25% | Continuous Bleeding. Replaced by cloud services and hyperconverged architectures. |
| Exadata Cloud@Customer (Private Cloud) | 15% | 25% | 30% | Core Stronghold. Absorbing high-value on-premises workloads. |
| OCI / Multicloud (Public Cloud PaaS) | 20% | 30% | 40% | Primary Growth. Oracle@Azure contributing significant incremental volume. |
| Third-Party Support / Zombie Instances | 10% | 5% | 5% | Hardware aging will eventually force migration or decommissioning. |
Note: Percentages represent active core count share, not customer count.
Part 8: Strategic Conclusions & Recommendations
8.1 Three Distinct Regional Narratives
The 2024-2025 global Oracle database adoption landscape presents three fundamentally different narratives:
Narrative 1: The Permanent Long Tail 🦕
The era of comprehensive upgrades has ended. Approximately 10-20% of global installation volumes may never leave Oracle 11g/12c. These systems will operate in “isolation zones” with third-party vendor lifecycle support until their business applications are completely retired or rewritten.
The fact that 50% of 11g users are in the USA indicates this phenomenon isn’t just a developing market characteristic—it represents technology asset ossification in mature economies.
Narrative 2: 19c as the New Mainframe 🏛️
Oracle 19c has achieved the historical status of IBM z/OS or Windows XP—ubiquitous and stable. With support extended to 2029/2032, it will continue commanding the largest global installation share (projected 30-40%) for the next five years.
⚠️ Risk: This may trap Oracle in the “Windows XP Effect”—product too successful and stable, causing customers to refuse upgrades, thereby impeding new feature (like AI vector) adoption.
Narrative 3: Regional Decoupling 🌍
| Region | Primary Driver | Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| North America | Hybrid Cloud | Fastest 23ai adoption, driven by AI demand and OCI-Azure interconnect |
| Europe | Compliance | 19c remains firmly entrenched; cautious exploration of open-source alternatives |
| China | Replacement | Oracle installation volumes continue shrinking; 11g/19c serve only as “blood donors” for migration to OceanBase, PolarDB, etc. |
8.2 Regional Summary: 2024-2025 Version Adoption Trends
| Metric | North America | Europe (EMEA) | China |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dominant Version | 19c (growing) | 19c (stable) | 11g R2 (legacy dominant/declining) |
| Legacy Long Tail (11g/12c) | High (~30-40%) – Third-party support driven | Medium (~25-30%) – Compliance constrained | Very High (>50%) – Migration difficulty affected |
| Primary Upgrade Driver | AI demand / Cloud integration (Oracle@Azure) | Compliance / Stability (GDPR) | Mandatory policy replacement (Xinchuang) |
| Primary Competitors | Snowflake / Databricks / SQL Server | PostgreSQL | OceanBase / Huawei GaussDB / Alibaba PolarDB |
| Cloud Strategy Preference | Oracle@Azure / AWS hybrid deployment | Sovereign Cloud / Dedicated Regions | Alibaba Cloud / Huawei Cloud / Private Cloud |
8.3 Key Insights
| # | Insight |
|---|---|
| 1️⃣ | Installation volume ≠ server count. With Multitenant architecture proliferation, a single CDB may host hundreds of PDBs. Future installation statistics will increasingly use “compute units (OCPU)” rather than physical instances. |
| 2️⃣ | License revenue and cloud revenue boundaries blur. BYOL mode means many “on-premises licenses” are actually consumed in the cloud. Analysts should beware of simply bearish “on-premises license revenue”—these revenues may just have changed form (IaaS consumption). |
| 3️⃣ | Long-term support trap. 19c’s extended lifespan may trap Oracle in the “Windows XP Effect”—product too successful and stable, causing upgrade refusal and impeding new feature adoption. |
| 4️⃣ | Divided world, unified code. Despite divergent regional fates, Oracle 19c remains the “universal language” connecting global data flows. |
8.4 Strategic Recommendations
For North American Enterprises 🇺🇸
- Leverage Oracle@Azure low-latency advantages to smoothly migrate legacy 11g databases to cloud 19c
- Evaluate 23ai Vector Search capabilities to enable business AI transformation
- Consider third-party support economics for non-critical legacy systems
For Chinese Enterprises 🇨🇳
- Develop clear “De-Oracle” roadmaps
- Given 11g/19c legacy status, prioritize evaluating domestic database Oracle syntax compatibility tools (OceanBase OMA, Huawei UGO) to reduce PL/SQL restructuring risk
- Plan phased migration starting from non-core systems
For European Enterprises 🇪🇺
- Fully leverage Oracle 19c extended support window to optimize existing asset ROI
- Introduce PostgreSQL in non-core business to balance growing Oracle license cost pressure
- Evaluate Sovereign Cloud options for compliance-sensitive workloads
Universal Guidance 🌐
The core decision isn’t “whether to use Oracle”—it’s “where to run Oracle” and “how to manage version debt.”
Organizations that successfully navigate the 19c-to-23ai generational transition while flexibly leveraging multicloud architectures will command competitive advantage in data infrastructure over the next five years.
References
Source 1: Regional Version Installation Data Report
- 2023 QUEST ORACLE COMMUNITY DATABASE PRIORITIES SURVEY – DBTA
- New Oracle Database Survey Shows Customers Satisfied with Current Releases but Concerned with Cost, Effort, and Upgrades Required to Maintain and Support – Business Wire
- Key Findings From Our Global Oracle Database Customer Survey – Rimini Street
- DOAG Conference and Exhibition 2024 in Nuremberg – German Oracle User Group
- Oracle Named a Leader in the 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Cloud DBMS – DBTA
- 2024 Year in Review – Exadata Database Service and Base Database Service – Oracle Blogs
- Will Upgrading to Oracle Database 23ai be Worth It? – Rimini Street
- Companies using Oracle 10g Enterprise Edition – Enlyft
- Companies using Oracle 11g Enterprise Edition – Enlyft
- Companies using Oracle Data Integrator Enterprise Edition – Enlyft
- Oracle Database Service for Azure – Oracle
- Oracle and Google Cloud Announce Oracle Database@Google Cloud GA – Oracle
- 5 Key Oracle License Trends in 2024-25 – Rythium
- Oracle Java Licensing Risks 2024 – House of Brick
- 24/7 Oracle Database Managed Services – Spinnaker Support
- Oracle Database Third Party Support – Spinnaker Support
- Oracle Positioned as a Leader in 2024 IDC MarketScape – Oracle
- Oracle, IBM losing ground to local databases in China – The Register
- Fifteen years have passed, and no one can be separated from Oracle – 36Kr
- Homegrown players gain more shine on global database stage – SCIO
- OceanBase Migration Documentation – OceanBase
- OceanBase OMS Documentation – OceanBase
- OMS V3.2.1/V4.2.3 – OceanBase
- Oracle Database Migration Solution – Alibaba Cloud
- Migrating Schemas from Oracle to GaussDB – Huawei Cloud
- From Oracle to GaussDB Distributed – Huawei Cloud
- China Database Industry Atlas (2024) – UnvDB
- UKOUG Conference 2024: A Reflection on APEX, AI, and Beyond – DSP
- UKOUG Conference 2024 – UKOUG
- DSP Wins the 2024 Oracle Partner Awards – DSP
- Oracle Recognized as Leader in 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant – Oracle
- Announcing Oracle Database 23ai: General Availability – Oracle Blogs
- Global Survey: Oracle Database Customers Evolving Strategies – AI Journal
- Oracle FY2025 Q4 and Full Year Financial Results – Oracle Investor Relations
- Oracle 10-K SEC Filing – SEC.gov
Source 2: Installation Base Estimation Report
- Oracle (ORCL) Revenue by Geography – Stock Analysis
- Oracle FY2024 Q4 Financial Results – Oracle Investor Relations
- Oracle Statistics By Employee, Revenue And Facts (2025) – ElectroIQ
- Discover Latest Oracle Statistics (2025) – Analyzify
- Oracle Support Extended for 19c and 23ai – Dbvisit
- Oracle 19c Support Extended to 2032 – CarajanDB
- 2023 Quest Oracle Community Database Priorities Survey – DBTA
- Companies using Oracle 12 – Enlyft
- Companies using Oracle 11g Enterprise Edition – Enlyft
- Autonomous AI Database Updates – Oracle Help Center
- Oracle Named a Leader in 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Cloud DBMS – Oracle
- Oracle Database Survey: Customers Concerned with Cost – Business Wire
- Oracle Database Users Question Value of Costly Upgrades – IT Brief Australia
- Survey Shows Customers Concerned with Cost, Effort, and Upgrades – Rimini Street
- 2022 Quest IOUG Database Insights Report – DBTA
- Oracle Database Customers Evolving Strategies – Rimini Street
- Key Findings From Global Oracle Database Survey – Rimini Street
- Oracle FY2025 Q4 Financial Results – Oracle Investor Relations
- Distributed Cloud Services – Oracle
- Oracle Q4 FY24 Earnings Release – Oracle
- IDC: China’s Big Data Market Size 2023 – Moomoo
- Chinese Banking Sector 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook – Deloitte China
- IDC Report: Alibaba Cloud Market Share – Longbridge
- Oracle, IBM Losing Ground to Local Databases in China – The Register
- Chinese Bank Oracle Case Study – Support Revolution
- Listed Banks in China: 2024 Review and Outlook – EY
- PSBC to Absorb Direct Banking Unit – Yicai Global
- Behind PSBC’s Merger with Youhui Wanjia Bank – Tiger Brokers
- DOAG 2024 Database on Demand – DOAG
- DOAG 2024: Is PostgreSQL Catching Up? – Shinguz
- Oracle Database and Data Protection Survey Results – DBTA